各位網友，首先我和大家講一件事，就是這個禮拜不單止台股，美股也創了 all-time high，而且不是創少少，是創很多。大家看到我公開給大家看的倉，其實是賺多了很多錢，當然其中很大的原因就是因為我那手QQQ賺了很多錢，我的海力士賺很多錢，三樣東西賺很多錢，就是我做的 option 賺了很多錢。如果你們後來沒跟的沒辦法，每個人有自己的環境。
我再講一次我為什麼這麼做，就是因為我發現美伊衝突大跌的時候，我賭它V型反彈。那天我出了緊急消息告訴大家，我預備用10萬美金去買V型反彈，就是買QQQ、SPY和另一隻，結果那兩隻買不到，如果全買了就更好。那手QQQ將近賺了100萬，海力士又賺了100萬，cover所有的交易，大概三樣東西都差不多，每樣100萬。
我又要解釋一下原理，海力士我講過了，我不講了。就是為什麼買 option，其實很容易買，我不明白大家覺得很困難買。就因為它一跌再跌的時候，通常這些股票一跌我就開始買少少，它跌很多我就買多些，它再跌我就開始沽 option、沽 put，因為我覺得再跌我不怕去接貨。舉個例子，好像TEM，由90元跌到50元、40幾元，30幾元我不怕去接貨，那我就沽 put，你明不明？我沽 put，你可以 put 給我30幾元，我還收了你的 premium。如果它再跌就不是了，我就買 call，因為我覺得持有幾年一定發大財。為什麼做 put 和 call？需要的錢是少很多的，這個是有槓桿比例的東西。其實我每次都是這樣做的，而且這些技術上不困難的。Kila已經做了兩條教學片給大家，是怎樣做的。其實我通常都是做半年的，Nancy Pelosi通常是做一年多的，更加長。
接下來我說說對大市的看法。我一會逐一說，但是先說大市的看法。油價如果簽了正式協議，會像石頭，會一直跌下來，通脹會下跌，三個月後就開始減息，美市是有一段好的時光。
硬體我是在買 bottleneck 股，但是因為我很晚才買，所以我只是買一點點，是跌我才買，一跌我就買，一跌我就買，VRT和GE Vernova，另外這兩隻跌我才買的，但我覺得相當穩陣。我覺得Palantir、Tempus AI和Roblox都轉了勢，可以 expect 有好的表現。
大家看看布蘭特原油跌到91元，星期一就會跌到90元以下。這個是在給一些摩擦費用，但是一旦正式簽協議就可能跌到80元，而只要霍爾木茲海峽正常通行一個星期，油價就有機會跌到60多至70元，通脹就會下跌。
最神奇的事情就是黃金我不知道做什麼。那時候每逢打仗黃金就升，誰知道早一輪打仗黃金就跌。打完仗黃金是不是應該升？打完仗黃金又跌，究竟算什麼呢？我都不是很明白，那兩個邏輯是完全相反的。白銀也是，比特幣也是，這些傳統的避險資產。邏輯那時候他們怎麼說呢？因為避險，所以打仗就升。後來為什麼打仗跌呢？他說因為這些現在變成高風險資產，那些人 de-risk 的時候賣掉它們。我又接受你這個說法，那怎麼打完仗又跌呢？他說因為現在沒有危機，所以跌。那你兩邊都跌算什麼呢？
Tesla你是看住幾樣東西。我都說看住整個五月整體的無人駕駛車，都是只有40多架，但是他可能是停了，到40架左右，等出 Cybercab。這個 Cybercab 轉用之後就可以大量部署。現在 Cybercab 已經生產了幾百架。還有一個好消息，我一直留意Tesla。我個人相信，這些看法是短期的看法，你未必要跟我的，因為是沒有把握的東西。就是隨著它在德州拿到L4牌照，就是在德州可以商業營運無人駕駛車。Cybercab出廠之後已經可以自己上路接生意。
撲克還有看幾樣東西，就是看中國批准自動駕駛。中國為什麼還沒批准自動駕駛呢？我相信美中還在爭論，美國對台灣問題的表現仍然未如理想。如果中國讓它有自動駕駛，就會多很多 subscription，因為它用了新的那套軟件，用回等於14.3.3版本，真的已經是接近完美了。很多人都說不用自己駕駛了，完全不用自己駕駛。我很想去英國買架車給我的女兒。最好來台灣，我很想坐一架自己駕駛的車，不用司機，自己駕去泊車，可以到處去，不用怕司機下班了。還有歐洲是否批准自動駕駛，這幾樣東西是最重要的。
NVIDIA由220元田回落到210多元，其實是回不了多少的。NVIDIA是隨時可以買的股票，當然一間6萬億市值的公司不會升得好像其他股票那麼厲害。不過去年的低潮時候也是跌到134元，我記得NVIDIA也升了50%。你要聽我說就知道為什麼CPU，Intel是不能買的，就是因為CPU的生意並不等於GPU的生意，而輝達是會連你的CPU生意都搶的。輝達今年預備做200億美金的CPU生意，只是CPU生意也已經拍得住Intel和AMD。另外它除了做CPU，現在還要出PC晶片。
台積電更加不用說，黃仁勳說台積電是晶片的聯邦儲備局，任何人都要看它的臉色。最好笑是那些和台積電翻臉的人，結果又回去找台積電，因為拿不到產能。Elon Musk發脾氣，說自己做晶圓廠，結果他發現每條路都走不通，現在就找聯發科幫他做。為什麼找聯發科幫他做？因為聯發科可以幫台積電拿到產能。Tim Cook也是，去完Intel、去完Samsung之後，他發現真的麻煩，所有訂單都是落給台積電。台積電是雄霸四海的，最好它跌一點，讓我可以買多一點。
VRT 我是在300元左右開始買的，現在是310元左右，暫時未有顯著的升幅，不用心急，這些每跌就買，我不是期望他短期內升得張的，最好它再跌一點，等我有機會多買一點。
Palantir明顯地轉了勢，156元，可能星期一會跌幾元，但是上回150元以上就是強勢。我覺得軟體股證實了它會增加龐大收入的公录󠄃，是會在下一輪得利的。其中包括Palantir。Tempus AI 50元左右。Tempus AI除了做 cancer，再做了其他幾樣醫療，我已經給了報告大家。Roblox也是，這些大行全部都轉為看好。
海力士不用說了，海力士笑到不識收聲，300元買，最高去到1400元，現在回落了一點，1320元。海力士是4倍多的。如果大家說沒有錢買海力士，這個真的很抱歉，其實你應該有少少錢買少少海力士。你們又不是很喜歡在歐洲市場買，其實等它上ADR，等得來已經升了5倍，那怎麼辦呢？
這一隻股票（AVAV）為什麼反彈到這裡呢？有人說美國政府會入股，大量擴充產能，覺得這些公司的規模太小，要大量生產無人機。AVAV也是這個意思。
這段講到這裡。
First of all, let me tell everyone one thing, which is that this week not only did Taiwan stocks create an all-time high, but US stocks also created an all-time high, and they didn't just break it by a little bit, they broke it by a lot. Everyone can see the portfolio that I publicly show you; in fact, I made a lot more money. Of course, a very big reason for that is because my position in QQQ made a lot of money, my SK Hynix made a lot of money, and three things made a lot of money, which is that the options I did made a lot of money. If you guys didn't follow along later, there was nothing that could be done about it, as everyone has their own circumstances.
Let me explain once more why I did this, which is because I discovered that during the US-Iran conflict when the market crashed, I bet on a V-shaped rebound. That day I released urgent news to tell everyone that I was prepared to use 100,000 USD to buy the V-shaped rebound, which was to buy QQQ, SPY, and another stock. In the end, those other two couldn't be bought; if all of them had been bought, it would have been even better. That position in QQQ made nearly 1 million, SK Hynix also made 1 million, covering all the trades, and roughly the three things were about the same, each making 1 million.
I need to explain the principles again. I have already talked about SK Hynix, so I won't talk about it. It is about why to buy options; actually, it is very easy to buy, and I don't understand why everyone feels it is so difficult to buy. It is because when it falls and falls again, usually when these stocks fall, I start to buy a little bit, when it falls a lot, I buy more, and when it falls further, I start to sell options, sell puts, because I feel that even if it falls further, I am not afraid to take delivery of the stock. For example, like TEM, it fell from 90 dollars to 50 dollars, 40-something dollars, and at 30-something dollars, I am not afraid to take delivery, so I sell puts, do you understand? I sell puts, you can put it to me at 30-something dollars, and I even collect your premium. If it falls further, it's a different story, I would buy calls, because I feel that holding it for a few years will definitely bring immense wealth. Why do puts and calls? The money required is much less, as this is something with a leverage ratio. Actually, I do it this way every time, and technically these things are not difficult. Kila has already made two instructional videos for everyone on how it is done. Actually, I usually do them for half a year, while Nancy Pelosi usually does them for over a year, which is even longer.
Next, I will talk about my view on the overall market. I will talk about them one by one later, but let's talk about the view on the overall market first. If a formal agreement is signed for oil prices, they will fall like a stone, they will keep falling down, inflation will drop, and rate cuts will begin three years later, meaning the US market will have a period of good times.
For hardware, I am buying bottleneck stocks, but because I bought them very late, I am only buying a tiny bit, and I only buy when they fall; as soon as they fall, I buy, as soon as they fall, I buy, which are VRT and GE Vernova. Additionally, I only buy these two when they fall, but I feel they are quite stable. I feel that Palantir, Tempus AI, and Roblox have all turned their trends around, and we can expect them to have good performances.
Everyone look at Brent crude oil falling to 91 dollars; on Monday, it will fall below 90 dollars. This is paying some friction costs, but once a formal agreement is signed, it could fall to 80 dollars, and as long as the Strait of Hormuz operates normally for one week, oil prices have a chance to fall to the 60s or 70s, and inflation will drop.
The most magical thing is that I don't know what gold is doing. Back then, whenever there was a war, gold would rise, but who knew that during the previous round of war, gold would fall instead. After the war ends, shouldn't gold rise? After the war ends, gold falls again; what on earth does that count as? I don't quite understand it either, as those two logics are completely contradictory. The same goes for silver, and the same goes for Bitcoin, these traditional safe-haven assets. What did they say about the logic back then? Because it is a safe haven, it rises when there is a war. Why did it fall during the war later then? They said because these have now become high-risk assets, and those people sell them when they de-risk. I can accept this statement of yours, but then why does it fall again after the war ends? They say because there is no crisis now, so it falls. Then what does it count as when it falls on both sides?
For Tesla, you are watching a few things. As I said, looking at the entire unmanned driving cars for the whole month of May, there were only 40-something cars, but he might have paused, staying at around 40 cars, waiting to release the Cybercab. After this Cybercab switches over, it can be deployed in large quantities. Currently, several hundred Cybercabs have already been produced. There is also good news; I have been keeping an eye on Tesla. I personally believe, and these views are short-term views that you don't necessarily have to follow because they are things without certainty, that with it obtaining the L4 license in Texas, it means it can commercially operate unmanned driving cars in Texas. After the Cybercab leaves the factory, it can already go on the road by itself to pick up business.
Poker also looks at a few things, which is looking at China approving autonomous driving. Why hasn't China approved autonomous driving yet? I believe the US and China are still arguing, and the US performance on the Taiwan issue is still not ideal. If China allows it to have autonomous driving, there will be many more subscriptions, because it used the new set of software, switching back to what is equivalent to version 14.3.3, which really is already close to perfect. Many people say there is no need to drive by themselves anymore, completely no need to drive by themselves. I really want to go to the UK to buy a car for my daughter. It would be best to come to Taiwan; I really want to sit in a car that drives itself, without a driver, driving itself to park, able to go everywhere, without having to fear that the driver has clocked off. Also, whether Europe approves autonomous driving, these few things are the most important.
NVIDIA pulled back from 220 dollars to 210-something dollars; actually, it didn't pull back by much. NVIDIA is a stock that can be bought at any time; of course, a company with a 6 trillion market cap will not rise as fiercely as other stocks. However, during the low tide last year, it also fell to 134 dollars; I remember NVIDIA also rose by 50%. You have to listen to what I say to know why for CPU, Intel cannot be bought, which is because the CPU business is not equal to the GPU business, and NVIDIA will even rob your CPU business. NVIDIA is prepared to do 20 billion USD of CPU business this year; just the CPU business alone can already match Intel and AMD. In addition to making CPUs, it is now also going to release PC chips.
TSMC goes without saying even more; Jensen Huang said TSMC is the Federal Reserve of chips, and anyone has to look at its face. The funniest thing is those people who fell out with TSMC, in the end, they went back to find TSMC because they couldn't get capacity. Elon Musk threw a tantrum and said he would make his own wafer fab; in the end, he found that every path was a dead end, and now he is looking for MediaTek to help him make them. Why look for MediaTek to help him make them? Because MediaTek can help get capacity from TSMC. Tim Cook is the same; after going to Intel and going to Samsung, he found it was really a hassle, and all orders were placed with TSMC. TSMC dominates the four seas; it would be best if it falls a little bit so that I can buy a bit more.
For VRT, I started buying at around 300 dollars, and now it is around 310 dollars; for the time being, there is no significant increase, so there is no need to be anxious. For these, buy whenever they fall; I am not expecting them to rise sharply in the short term, and it would be best if it falls a bit more so that I have the chance to buy a bit more.
Palantir has obviously turned its trend around, 156 dollars; it might fall a few dollars on Monday, but being above 150 dollars last time represents strength. I feel that software stocks have proven they are companies that will increase huge revenues, and they will benefit in the next round. Among them is Palantir. Tempus AI is around 50 dollars. Tempus AI, in addition to doing cancer, has done several other types of medical care; I have already given the report to everyone. Roblox is also the same; all these big investment banks have turned to being bullish.
SK Hynix goes without saying; for SK Hynix, the smile is so big it can't close, buying at 300, going up to 1400 at the highest, and now it pulled back a little bit to 1320. SK Hynix is more than 4 times. If everyone says they have no money to buy SK Hynix, this is really a pity; actually, you should have a little bit of money to buy a tiny bit of SK Hynix. You guys don't really like to buy in the European market, but actually waiting for it to get on the ADR, by the time it arrives it has already risen 5 times, so what can be done then?
For this stock (AVAV), why did it rebound to here? Some people say the US government will invest in it and expand its production capacity on a large scale, feeling that the scale of these companies is too small and they need to mass-produce drones. AVAV also carries this meaning.
This section ends here.
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